Alaska Air Group’s December 2023 agreement to buy Hawaiian Airlines looked vulnerable to antitrust review. I wrote that regulators would probably reject it. Alaska completed the acquisition on September 18, 2024. That call was wrong.
The original concern was still worth asking. A combined airline could offer more connections, but fewer independent competitors on Hawaii routes could also weaken price pressure. Approval answered whether the deal could close; it did not prove fares or service would improve.
I would judge the merger by routes and prices people can actually book, not the buyer’s promise of “more choice.” When two networks combine, the benefits tend to show up in a map first. Passengers need them to show up in the timetable and the fare.