I do not buy weather as a full explanation for a profit forecast without lost-ride data. Lyft reported 2025 free cash flow of $1.12 billion and announced a new $1 billion buyback in February 2026. Adjusted EBITDA reached $528.8 million for the year. Those are real improvements, although the much larger GAAP net income included a $2.9 billion tax valuation allowance benefit.
The market still focused on Lyft’s first-quarter outlook. Management guided to roughly $4.86 billion to $5.00 billion of gross bookings and $120 million to $140 million of adjusted EBITDA. I would watch how much of the booking volume becomes adjusted profit. A buyback cannot answer that operating question.
Uber’s earlier earnings call cannot isolate the storm’s effect on Lyft: the companies have different geographic mixes, quarters, and disclosures. Weather may affect rides, but without market-level lost-trip data I cannot assign a precise share of the guidance to it.
Lyft should explain the gap between booking growth and profit as the year develops. If the margin recovers with demand, the first-quarter caution was temporary. If it does not, the expensive part of this story is in pricing, incentives, or costs, not the weather forecast.