I do not buy weather as a full explanation for a profit forecast without lost-ride data. Lyft reported 2025 free cash flow of $1.12 billion and announced a new $1 billion buyback in February 2026. Adjusted EBITDA reached $528.8 million for the year. Those are real improvements, although the much larger GAAP net income included a $2.9 billion tax valuation allowance benefit.
The market still focused on Lyft’s first-quarter outlook. Management guided to roughly $4.86 billion to $5.00 billion of gross bookings and $120 million to $140 million of adjusted EBITDA. That puts the adjusted margin at roughly 2.4% to 2.9% of bookings, depending on where results land within the ranges. The buyback returns cash to shareholders while this quarter’s ride business has its own margin to defend.
Uber’s earlier earnings call cannot isolate the storm’s effect on Lyft: the companies have different geographic mixes, quarters, and disclosures. Weather may affect rides, but without market-level lost-trip data I cannot assign a precise share of the guidance to it.
Lyft should explain the gap between booking growth and profit as the year develops. If the margin recovers with demand, the first-quarter caution was temporary. If it does not, the expensive part of this story is in pricing, incentives, or costs, not the weather forecast.