Waymo just announced they're launching robotaxi service in Detroit, Las Vegas, and San Diego. By the end of 2026, they expect to be offering 1 million trips per week.

They're currently at 100,000+ rides per week. That's a 10x scale-up in roughly 14 months.

This is what separates Waymo from every other autonomous vehicle company: they're not running pilots anymore. They're scaling commercial operations across multiple cities simultaneously.

Why These Cities Matter

Detroit is the big one. Cold weather, snow, ice, freeze-thaw road conditions—everything that makes autonomous driving harder. Waymo's been testing there, but commercial launch signals they've solved winter weather perception and control.

That's a massive technical milestone. Tesla's still running safety drivers in the Bay Area, where weather is easy mode. Waymo's launching driverless service in Michigan winters.

Las Vegas makes sense—high tourism density, concentrated demand on the Strip, warm weather year-round. Amazon's Zoox launched there in September, so this is Waymo directly competing for the Vegas market before it locks in with a single provider.

San Diego is the California expansion play. Waymo's already operating in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. Adding San Diego gives them coverage across the four largest California metros.

The 1 Million Weekly Rides Target

Waymo's currently at 100,000+ rides per week with an estimated fleet of 1,000-1,500 vehicles. To hit 1 million rides per week by end of 2026, they need either:

• 10x more vehicles (10,000-15,000 total fleet), or
• 3-4x more rides per vehicle per day through better utilization

Probably both. Waymo's been adding roughly 50-75 vehicles per month in recent quarters. To hit 10,000 vehicles by late 2026, they need to ramp to 200-300 vehicles per month.

That's the manufacturing constraint. Waymo partners with Jaguar for their I-PACE platform. Can Jaguar scale production fast enough to support Waymo's deployment timeline?

Compare this to Zoox, which built a factory that can produce 10,000 robotaxis per year—but they're currently making one per day. Waymo's bottleneck is vehicle supply, not technology readiness.

First-Mover Advantage Compounding

Here's what matters: Waymo's been operating driverless robotaxis since 2020. They've logged millions of autonomous miles, handled edge cases, refined operations.

Tesla's targeting April 2026 for Cybercab production. That's 18 months from now, and Tesla's timelines slip. Even if Tesla hits that target, Waymo will have 6+ years of commercial driverless operations by then.

Uber's partnering with multiple AV providers—Waymo, Lucid-Nuro, May Mobility—which diversifies risk but also means Uber doesn't control the technology. They're a distribution platform, not an AV operator.

Waymo owns the full stack: sensors, software, fleet management, operations. That vertical integration means they capture all the margin improvement as costs decline.

The Safety Data Gap

Recent data shows Waymo vehicles average one incident per 98,600 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash roughly once every 62,500 miles—despite having human safety drivers ready to intervene.

That's a 60% higher crash rate for Tesla, with humans backing up the system.

This validates Waymo's lidar-based approach over Tesla's vision-only strategy. Lidar is more expensive per vehicle, but if it reduces crashes by 60%, the liability and insurance savings more than offset sensor costs.

Safety matters because it determines regulatory approval timelines. Waymo getting approved for driverless operations in Detroit means they've demonstrated winter weather safety to regulators. Tesla's still proving their system works with safety drivers in easy weather.

The Uber Partnership Context

In the past year, Waymo launched on Uber in Atlanta and Austin. Now they're expanding to three more cities while targeting 10x growth.

This is smart for both companies. Uber gets autonomous vehicle supply without building the technology. Waymo gets distribution and customer acquisition without building a ride-hailing app.

But it also means Uber's dependent on Waymo for AV access in major markets. If Waymo decides to launch their own app and cut out Uber later, they could. Uber knows this, which is why they're hedging with Lucid-Nuro, May Mobility, and others.

Lyft's doing the same—partnering with Waymo in Nashville, May Mobility in Atlanta, Tensor Auto elsewhere. Nobody wants to be fully dependent on a single AV provider.

Why I'm Pro-Waymo

I'm pro-Waymo because they've actually done it. 100,000+ rides per week isn't a pilot—it's commercial operations. Expanding to three new cities simultaneously isn't testing—it's scaling.

Tesla has better manufacturing and vertical integration capability. Their Cybercab factory could theoretically produce at higher volume. But manufacturing doesn't matter if the technology isn't ready for driverless operation.

Waymo's been driverless since 2020. Tesla's still running safety drivers in 2025. That 5+ year gap in driverless experience is enormous.

Amazon's Zoox has the right approach—purpose-built vehicles, vertical integration, no steering wheel. But they're producing one vehicle per day right now. Waymo's deploying hundreds.

The Labor Cost Catalyst

Here's why Waymo's expansion timing matters: California's AB 1340 takes effect January 1, 2026, giving gig workers unionization rights. If driver wages increase through collective bargaining, autonomous vehicles become economically necessary, not optional.

Waymo's positioned to capture that shift. By late 2026, they'll be operating in 8-10 cities with hundreds of thousands of weekly rides. When labor costs spike, platforms will need autonomous supply—and Waymo will be the only provider operating at meaningful scale.

That's why their expansion announcement matters. It's not just three new cities. It's positioning to be the dominant AV provider when economics flip in favor of autonomous vehicles.

Here's What I Think Happens

Waymo hits 500,000 weekly rides by mid-2026 and 1 million by Q4 2026. Detroit launch proves winter weather capability, which opens up Chicago, Boston, NYC, Seattle—massive markets that were previously off-limits due to weather concerns.

By end of 2027, Waymo's operating in 15-20 cities with 2-3 million weekly rides. They're the clear market leader in autonomous ride-hailing, with more driverless miles, better safety data, and faster regulatory approvals than any competitor.

Tesla ramps Cybercab production in late 2026, but faces regulatory delays getting driverless permits due to weaker safety data. They operate with safety drivers through 2027, which limits unit economics improvement.

Uber and Lyft both benefit from Waymo's expansion, but become increasingly dependent on Waymo for AV supply. Waymo eventually launches their own app as a hedge but continues partnerships because Uber/Lyft's distribution is valuable.

The autonomous vehicle race isn't over—there's still room for Tesla, Zoox, and others to compete. But Waymo's lead is real, and it's growing. Execution at scale is harder than building prototypes, and Waymo's the only company doing it.

Source: Waymo's robotaxi expansion accelerates with 3 new cities